Why Small Countries Will Matter as Much as Superpowers in The Coming Decade

Introduction: 

While superpowers remain dominant, smaller states are increasingly able to match their influence. Historically, we understand that the United States, Russia and China have significantly dominated global affairs, economically and militarily. However, the current geopolitical state of the world creates opportunities for smaller countries to gain influence. 

The world has transitioned from a global hegemony to a multipolar one. Countries such as Taiwan, Singapore, Norway, Pakistan and Qatar are gaining influence due to their strategic geographical positioning, access to critical resources & technology specialization, and diplomatic agility. Smaller nations are becoming equally significant actors in the shaping of 

global systems in the coming decade. 

Decentralised World and Historical Background: 

The emerging decentralised global order is driven by recent rising tensions and the change in global influence. As of 2026, the United States announced their withdrawal from over 66 international organizations, most affiliated with the United Nations. “Not exactly a smart move leaving rulemaking to others, This will hurt the U.S. influence for decades” said Andreas Sieber, associate director of policy and campaigns with 350.org, concerned that reduced engagement can hinder U.S. influence globally. The country is also preoccupied in servicing a national debt exceeding $36 trillion (2025), that President Donald Trump aims to mitigate through prioritizing the nation's economic growth. 1 Simultaneously, China has risen in its technological and economic power. The country focuses on strategic long-term development, as well as working with smaller nations such as Pakistan, Bangladesh and several African countries. 

These changing priorities create gaps in global leadership allowing smaller nations to form alliances with larger powers. There is no longer a sole hegemon; but rather fluid alliances in a multipolar world. As the United States reduces its multilateral cooperation, and China seeks new allies, smaller states are able to gain leverage and exert influence on a global level. 

The influence of small states is not a recent phenomenon but its nature has evolved over time. For example, the Venetian Republic (c. 679 - 1797) reopened the Mediterranean economy to Western Europe. Venice relied on its geographical position to establish itself as a center for “commercial capitalism”.2 Located in a lagoon, the Republic created specialised trade routes in

the Adriatic sea for transporting critical resources. Being a center of global trade, Venice developed political and legal institutions that it benefited from. It was a pioneer in developing foreign exchange and credit markets, effectively a government bond market. The country grew to possess significant trade capability and expanded its empire multifold. The Venetian Republic tied regions together, which boosted economies and regional relations. Their influence remained concentrated demonstrating that while the country held economic power, their influence was limited compared to nations today. 

In the midst of European geopolitical conflict, Switzerland became a stable hub for capital due to its established political neutrality in 1815. The country grew as a banking nation through the implementation of the ‘Banking Secrecy Law’ in 1934.3It aimed to increase financial privacy, which attracted foreign investors. This helped the country stand out after World War I-II, amongst others facing instability and the risk of expropriation. Since the 1990s, Switzerland has been able to expand to investment banking and gained a presence in global markets.This displays that smaller nations derived influence from stability and neutrality, especially in times of uncertainty. Although, this influence was dependent on external circumstances, unlike in today's world where influence can come through different sources of power.4 

Small states can exert influence through 3 different factors: Geographical advantage, resource & technology specialization and diplomatic agility. Countries' relative strengths across these factors allow them to collaborate with powerful nations, or gain a valuable place in the global order. 

Factor 1: Geographical Advantage 

A key factor that smaller regions use to their advantage is strategic geographical power. As seen before, the Republic of Venice used their location to serve as a key transportation hub for major regions, expanding their market and economy. In today's world, regions and countries such as the Strait of Hormuz and Singapore rely on their proximity to critical trade routes, far more than their military size or economic strength. 

The Strait of Hormuz is the critical maritime chokepoint linking the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. 20% of the world’s oil and liquid natural gas (LNG) transits through the primary sea route for most gulf countries and The Strait is responsible for $600 million in annual energy trade.5 The Strait is a geopolitically sensitive chokepoint as any disruption can lead to immediate spikes in oil and energy prices, and threaten the global supply chain. 

Iran upon threatening the security of the Strait through missiles and attacks on ships has increased oil prices for many countries. Most Gulf nations such as Qatar rely on passage through the Strait for their oil exports. As a result, India’s crude oil prices spiked 8-9% since the conflict began. This demonstrates that control or influence over a small chokepoint can allow for a small national power to exert force on the global economy.6

Similarly, Singapore has been the leading maritime capital and busiest transshipment hub for 12 consecutive years as of 2025. Singapore leveraged its position along the Strait of Malacca to offer a free, safe and open trade environment for global superpowers.7 Despite its small size and limited natural resources, the country supports and connects over 800 ports worldwide, making international trade possible.8 This allows Singapore to exert influence beyond its borders and grow their economy. 

These examples demonstrate how smaller nations can leverage their geographical position to their advantage, and use it to build ties with larger countries. It also gives them a position to influence trade and market decisions, raising them to a global scale. This makes them equally as relevant globally as military or economically strong nations. 

Factor 2: Resource and Technological Specialization 

In the 21st century, power is increasingly defined not by size, but what the world depends on. Some small countries such as Qatar have control over critical resources. This control gives small states outsized global influence, and opens up opportunities for partnerships and protection. 

Qatar is one of the three biggest LNG exporters, exporting 77 million metric tons annually. They account for nearly 20% of global LNG, and their exports helped the country develop economically, and build strong geopolitical ties with South Korea, Europe, India and China.9 Since the recent 2026 strikes on the Strait of Hormuz, Qatar faced significant disruptions which raised prices for importing countries. The disruption highlights how many economies rely on Qatar as a single supplier, giving the country significant bargaining power.10 Qatar’s exports also reinforce how in today's interconnected economy, control over key resources can elevate a small country into a position of global influence. Although Qatar is still yet to gain global presence, their regional influence is becoming increasingly important to China, India, and Japan. 

Similarly, Taiwan established itself as a critical player in the global economy through its prowess in semiconductor manufacturing. Despite its relatively small size, the country produces 90% of the world's advanced semiconductor chips, through companies such as TSMC. These chips have become extremely relevant for smartphones, automobiles, artificial intelligence and military systems.11 This specialization in chips has given Taiwan immense strategic importance, as disruptions can lead to complications in global chains. Although the country is diversifying its manufacturing facilities, it prefers to keep its cutting-edge and high-volume manufacturing at home, forcing intense collaboration. The U.S. and China have also placed a great deal of focus on Taiwan, for both economic and security reasons. Taiwan demonstrates that specializing in a specific technological field can place the country in a globally influential position. This makes the country just as significant to superpowers, as these chips dominate the global market. In the next decade, Taiwan will become an important country that can gain independence and form alliances, using their tech specialization.

Factor 3: Diplomatic Agility 

Lastly, in our multipolar world, influence isn’t solely based on military and economic dominance, but also the ability for countries to form complex relationships. Smaller states hold a key advantage: diplomatic agility. Unlike larger states that are tied to historic alliances or bureaucratic inertia, smaller states can act quickly, stay flexible and be neutral mediators. 

In the light of the rising Iran-U.S.conflict (2026), Pakistan has remained a negotiator, encouraging peaceful negotiation between the states. Pakistan is in an advantageous position as a mediator since the country holds deep-rooted religious ties with Iran, and does not possess any U.S. military bases, thus making it acceptable to Tehran. They have worked to prevent wider regional escalation through diplomacy. Pakistan illustrates how a small-sized country with neutral relationships can present itself as global mediators.12 

Similarly, Norway has also engaged in peaceful diplomacy. The country abides by a “talk to everyone” policy, where they maintain inclusive dialogue. They communicate with all state actors, as well as controversial or blacklisted countries.13 This promotes them to a reliable intermediary, where they are capable of bridging divides when larger powers cannot. 

Norway is globally popular for the secret negotiation and funding of the Oslo Accords, which aimed for a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine. Although the United States was seen as a direct political player, Norway was the country which provided a safe space for diplomacy and negotiation.14 This highlights that smaller nations can dictate diplomacy when superpowers cannot, due to political bias or direct involvement. 

Limitations: Influence is not Independence 

Although these small states are gaining influence, most remain stuck and unable to gain complete independence. Their economies are small and not self sufficient, making them dependent on larger countries for trade imports. Climate change struggles, geopolitical wars between larger powers and dependence on larger bloc countries for security makes it difficult for these countries to sustain themselves. 

For example, most Small Island Developing States (SIDS) face environmental struggles such as rising sea levels or a lack of infrastructure and rely on superpowers for economic support. In addition most Baltic states have joined NATO, to gain protection and security from a powerful organization. In the midst of war, larger powers' interests and priorities change.15 This either puts strains on the country themselves or makes them vulnerable to pressure from these superpowers. For instance, an economically significant state, Taiwan, operates under large geopolitical stress from large powers. Another example is Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine war (2022-present). Ukraine, despite being strategically important, depends heavily on its Western alliances to

provide military support. If there was a circumstance where the United States stopped supplying arms to Ukraine, the country would face extensive security issues.16 

This shows that influence does not equal independence. 

Conclusion: 

The structure of the global world is undergoing a fundamental shift. While traditional superpowers such as China and the United States dominate militarily and economically, influence in the 21st century is becoming more decentralised. Small state actors are no longer passive actors, and are rising up with geographical advantage, technological and resource specialization, and diplomatic agility. They are shaping global systems in meaningful ways. 

However their influence is not absolute. These countries still face hurdles in gaining independence, and exist within a framework heavily influenced by superpowers. The next decade may not only be shaped by superpowers, but by smaller nations that the world is dependent on. 

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